Automated driving and shared mobility are worth 25 billion

Automated driving and shared mobility are worth 25 billion

Digitizing travel systems will offer benefits for users, but also challenges for society: the analysis of the Bundesamt für Raumentwicklung

Display to get information and buy tickets of the Swiss Federal Railways
Display to get information and buy tickets of the Swiss Federal Railways

Automated driving e shared mobility: Together, these two trends could strongly influence the mobility of people and the transport of please in Switzerland.
Il saving of time, comfort , accident reduction should be the most important effects. From an economic point of view, earnings and benefits totals for users and for the environment are estimated at 25 billion francs a year.
However, there is a risk that these trends will lead to a increase in car use, thus exacerbating some social problems.
A study commissioned by the ARE (Federal Office of Spatial Development o Bundesamt für Raumentwicklung o Office Fédéral du Développement Territorial) quantifies and monetizes these different impacts.

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Opportunities and risks in the digitization of mobility
Opportunities and risks in the digitization of mobility

A projection in key 2060, structured on three possible scenarios

Even without a precise date or method, the study shows that i autonomous vehicles, car sharing and transport on request they will transform the our mobility.
The authors of the study on economic effects of digitization in mobility have made a screening for the 2060 and they elaborated three scenarios in which these different developments would reach one complete realization. Later, they estimated the impacts of the latter against one reference scenario.
The benefits ofautomation and shared mobility take very different forms for users. There vehicle sharing reduces their cost, but this represents only one small part of the total benefit.

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Booking a rental car from the Swiss Mobility company via the app
Booking a rental car from the Swiss Mobility company via the app

Benefits from reduction in the number of accidents and driving time

Other improvements due to automation are the reduction of the number of accidents and driving time; the time gained can thus be dedicated to other activities.
Un increase in automation and of the qnumber of people per vehicle makes the smoother traffic and could also significantly reduce the personal tempo negli traffic jams.
Even taking into account the negative impacts on health and ontechnology associated with a increased use of the car, the net benefit in the scenario where automation and sharing develop simultaneously is estimated at 25 billion francs a year.
The effects of automation onSwiss economy, however, are likely to be less beneficial. On the one hand, the automated driving could mean a job loss in Switzerland. On the other, the overwhelming majority of cars or some parts of them nowadays is imported.
The increase in their cost and use will consequently reduce the consumption of other goodsi, which, in turn, will reduce the overall creation of added value in Switzerland.

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A railway tunnel seen from the front window of a train of the Swiss Federal Railways
A railway tunnel seen from the front window of a train of the Swiss Federal Railways

Automation without shared mobility: minus CHF 8,6 billion

In a scenario where automation it develops without shared mobility, loss to the Swiss economy is estimated at approx 8,6 billion francs a year.
On the contrary, in the scenario in which it develops only shared mobility, the overall effect on the economy would be equivalent to a benefit of 3,8 billion francs a yearo.
I shared vehicles they actually have a lower unit cost, which involves a bigger budget for expenses able to generate added value in Switzerland.
It is important to consider these future developments in the current discussions on transport policy territorial planning.

 

A train of the Swiss Federal Railways in Mendrisio
A train of the Swiss Federal Railways in Mendrisio
A rental car from the Swiss company Mobility
A rental car from the Swiss company Mobility

An exploratory analysis, weighed down by temporal and technical uncertainties

This study provides an economic analysis of the impacts of automated driving and shared mobility. There is still much uncertainty about thetime horizon and the ways in which these trends will be realized.
To estimate its effects, this study had to present hypotheses, some of which are quite radical.
Also, for better understand the impact of these trends it was necessary consider them in an “isolated” system.
The scenarios don't they take into consideration other developments likely to occur simultaneously, such as the emergence of the telework or l 'urbanization.
Scenarios that bring together these different trends are instead considered in the context of traffic prospects 2040.

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Picking up an electric rental car from the Swiss company Mobility with your personal card
Picking up an electric rental car from the Swiss company Mobility with your personal card